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Prediction for CME (2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-04T10:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25453/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the southwest in all coronagraphs (SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2). Leading edge is faint and wide. Source is a large filament eruption seen spanning from about S32W10 to S10W50 in SDO AIA 304 starting at about 2023-06-04T09:00Z (Centered at S25W30). Post-eruptive dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193 along the southwest quadrant of the Sun at 09:27Z, and ejecta can be seen off the southwest limb in SDO AIA 171 at 09:42Z. The filament can also be seen erupting in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 starting at 08:25Z/8:15Z, respectively. From LASSOS team discussion: this signature is likely a flank arrival of a CME passing West of Earth.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-07T22:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-08T03:30Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME Event ID: A9535
Glancing blow

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-06-04 17:00:00Z 
Radial velocity (km/s): 574 km/s
Longitude (deg): 33°
Latitude (deg): -13°
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
From NOAA SWPC Forecast Discussion issued: 2023 Jun 05 1230 UTC
Solar Activity
...
.24 hr Summary...
A 35 degree long filament, centered near S20W33, lifted off between
04/0830-1000 UTC. A portion of the material was observed moving north,
but a portion did escape off the SW limb as observed in SOHO LASCO
imagery. The resultant CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at
04/1036 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested possible
influence from the periphery of the CME on 08 Jun.
Lead Time: 73.08 hour(s)
Difference: -5.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-06-04T21:20Z
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